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UFC 244: Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal early odds and prediction

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On November 2, fans will finally get to see two great warriors enter the octagon to square off.

It’s not like we haven’t seen other great warriors enter the eight-sided ring before, but this fight is special. Both are veterans who respect each other as elite. And more importantly, neither of these MMA stars understand the word quit.

The early odds at top sportsbooks opened with Jorge Masvidal as high as -245 and are now hovering with Masvidal at around a -175 favorite. As we get closer to fight night, we’ll probably see this line go down a little further. If you are a bettor and you like Nate Diaz, you should probably jump on the line now, while you can still get him at +155. If you Like Jorge Masvidal, you might want to wait a bit and see if you can’t get a little more return on your money.

What Do the Early Lines Mean?

So, how seriously should we take these lines? Masvidal opened at -245 which would put him as the moderate favorite to win. Now that the line has dipped to -175, we could call him a slight favorite – at least in the world of Boxing and MMA. But, this dip is artificial, essentially, public action moved the line, not the handicappers. So should we be expecting Masvidal to win in a dominant fashion?

Well, that depends. This is the UFC and the end of the fight is always just one punch, kick, knee, or choke away. These are two Bad Emmer Effers, so, despite Masvidal being an odds favorite in Vegas, I don’t see him easily putting away Nate Diaz. After all, the UFC promptly trademarked Diaz’s statement about defending his ‘baddest motherf*#$er in the game belt’

Matchup Breakdown

Diaz is a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. So he has a definitive advantage on the ground. That said, Masvidal’s takedown defense is superb, so Diaz will have difficulties getting Jorge down to the mat. He may end up getting quite a few of his takedown attempts stuffed. Both are excellent strikers. Diaz manages distance well and throws punches in volume. He has a knack for herding his opponents into his power hand. That said, he doesn’t usually punch for power. Masvidal, on the other hand, has more knockout power. But both of these fighters are tough as nails with iron chins, so I don’t envision either knocking the other out … not that it couldn’t happen, I just think it unlikely.

Prediction: if Nate Diaz wins, it will most likely be by submission. If he gets Jorge down to the mat and can keep him there long enough, he could put Masvidal in a tough situation. If Masvidal wins, it will most likely be by decision. He can gain the judges’ favor by stuffing Diaz’s takedown attempts and landing impressive power shots throughout the fight.

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