The Fight Wolff predicts UFC 168’s ‘Rousey vs. Tate II’ title rematch

After a tense season of TUF coaching opposite one another, Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate finally fight in the co-main event on this Saturday night. If Tate can pull of the big upset then we will have a true rivalry, one that will get very interesting between them. If Rousey rolls through her again then Tate is not going to get another title shot, especially while Rousey has the belt. Right now the rivalry has been more competitive outside of the cage. Tate needs the win or to at least make it a good fight. It is just difficult to see how she wins this fight.

Even the shows hyping the fight are struggling to make the fight sound competitive. They even mentioned Tate’s three wins via KO/TKO in her career as evidence that she can win that way. They did not mention that she has not won that way in over four years. Two of the wins are against fighters who are a combined 2-10 and have lost by KO/TKO six times. She has not been able to do it to a top-level opponent. In fact, she tends to get out struck on her feet and has lost twice by KO/TKO herself. This includes her last fight against Cat Zingano where she was stopped in the third round. When you look at this matchup closely it is tough finding a way for Tate to win it.

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Both Tate and her boyfriend Bryan Caraway say she is better than Ronda on her feet but the numbers do not back that up. In their first fight the striking numbers were even with each of them landing eight strikes. For all of the criticism Tate has had of Rousey striking it is hers that seems the most simplistic and basic. She does not use a lot of head movement and has a tendency to go straight forward. She has talked about winning this fight on her feet. If she wants to do that she will need to have better defense and movement than she has shown in the past. Also, to keep it standing Tate will have to fight her instincts as a wrestler. It is where she has won many of her fights and what she turns to when she is hurt.

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Now, for Rousey the sample size is very small. In her seven fights she has spent a total of twelve minutes and twenty-eight seconds inside the cage. This is what happens when you destroy and dominate your opponents. In her six Strikeforce and UFC fights Rousey has landed a total of fourteen strikes and eight of those were against Tate. Rousey uses her standup to close the distance so she can get the fight to the ground. To this point in her career she has not needed to do more than that with her striking, as no one has been able to stop her armbar.

Even if Tate is able to goad Rousey into a standup battle, it still could be a mistake for her. Not that the ground is a better game plan for her as Rousey is at a different level with her famous armbar and grappling. Tate has brought a judo coach in for this fight, but she will not be able to make up in one fight camp the gap between her and Rousey, who is an Olympian.

Tate is tough and she always fights with a lot of heart but this is just a very bad matchup for her. If she fights a smarter fight than the last one she can stretch this fight past the first round. If it goes to the later rounds anything can happen but it is unlikely. Rousey is just a different beast in the cage. She is a pure competitor and wants to beat you at everything. We saw it during the coaches challenge on TUF. She just refuses to lose and so far she has not inside the cage.

The easy prediction is the first round armbar for Rousey. A part of me thinks that Rousey will pull an Ali and turn Tate into her personal Ernie Terrell. She will punish Tate on her feet for four rounds and then submits her by armbar in fifth. If Tate does lose by armbar do not be shocked if her head explodes like she was in Scanners. It will be Rousey in the fifth round via armbar.