TUF 20 Finale & UFC on FOX 13 Kountermove Preview + Freeroll

We’ve got a full weekend of UFC events this weekend with the TUF 20 finale happening Friday night and UFC on FOX 13 on Saturday. In preparation for the fights on this weekend, we’ve got your regular Kountermove fantasy MMA breakdown for both events. The breakdown will include a few picks I like and a one I’m not so fond of for each card. We’ve also got a UFC on FOX 13 freeroll from the good people at KM for fightbooth readers. Before we get to that, here’s a little reminder from the founders of the site on how KM works and how fights are scored:

“About Kountermove.  Kountermove, Inc. is currently the world’s leading Fantasy MMA community. Kountermove is like fantasy football or baseball, but for MMA. Our founders, Aaron Ard and Brian Knapp, are Jiu-jitsu black belts and IBJJF competitors.

Pick your team of 5 fighters. You are given a “salary cap” of $25,000 in fantasy money to spend on drafting your team of fighters you expect to perform well/win.

Each fighter is assigned a price that is reflective of his or her respective odds. For example, in UFC 167: GSP cost $6,000, while Johny Hendricks cost $5,000. Since Hendricks is the underdog, he cost less than GSP.

Score Points and Win. Once the fight card begins, you accumulate points based on how well your picks performed.

Winners are determined by the most points earned – points are awarded: strikes landed, submission attempts, knockdowns, dominant positions, rounds won, and knockout or submission bonuses.

Fight statistics are provided by FightMetric LLC, the UFC’s official stats provider.”

Here are a few extra links to get you accustomed to how the site works and how performances are scored.

How it works

Scoring

Remember this is fantasy sports, so you’re not only trying to pick a winner but someone you think will finish the fight or rack up a ton of points on their way to a decision.

Here are 3 quick tips for each event that will hopefully help you make some cash this weekend:

TUF 20 Finale

1.   The fighter I like the most from a KM perspective on Friday’s finale event is going to be Joanne Calderwood ($5,200). She’s going to be the only TUF 20 competitor fighting a non-cast member in South Korea’s Seo Hee Ham, who is moving up a weight class from atomweight for this fight. I think this fight will play out primarily on the feet, with Calderwood having a significant striking advantage. I think more often than not JoJo finishes the fight sometime in the first two rounds, but even if this goes the full three rounds I can see her winning a fairly one-sided decision. In a card where a number of the fights will likely go to decision, you want to try to pick as many finishes as possible. I think Calderwood gets the finish for you this weekend, and should hold a spot on your KM team.

 2.   While still hunting for the low number of finishes I see happening on the TUF finale show, I think SBG fighter Aisling Daly ($4,600) picks up the finish this weekend in her matchup with Alex Chambers. I think she’s got the overall advantage both standing and on the mat, and is a rare fighter in the strawweight division who is a proven finisher, having finished 12 of her 14 wins coming in to the house. I think she uses her finishing instinct and sizeable experience advantage to end the fight early, getting you another finish and giving your KM team the edge it needs to get you some money this weekend.

3.   An expensive pick I’m definitely going to be staying away from for the finale is Felice Herrig ($5,500). She’s one of the relatively high number of TUF 20 cast members who’s known more her personality than she is for her actual talent as a fighter. I think Lisa Ellis ($4,100) is actually being overlooked by most in this matchup, and I think she’s actually worth it as an underdog pick if you’re trying to save money to go for some more expensive picks like Oliveira or Tecia Torres. Herrig, who has only finished a third of her nine wins, has been in a few close decisions in her career and I see this fight being no different. If a finish does come, however, I see it coming from the more experienced Ellis, who has submitted her opponent in 11 of her 15 wins, eight in the opening round. This makes her a valuable asset to your KM team.

UFC on FOX 13

1.   Moving over to UFC on Fox 13 on Saturday night, the pick that stands out for me the most is John Moraga ($5,000). While his opponent Willie Gates is talented and a dangerous fighter who has proven he can win wherever the fight takes place, I think he’s vastly outmatched in this bout. Moraga has only lost to the most elite of flyweights in both his title bout with Mighty Mouse and his two fights with John Dodson and has beaten a number of top level fighters. I think Moraga impresses in this fight and gets an early finish against his late replacement opponent, getting you a healthy amount of KM points in the process.

2.   There aren’t a significant amount of cheaper picks I really like on this card, and even fewer who I think will get you a finish, but Henry Cejudo ($4,000) is a fighter who I think has a decent change at picking up the W this weekend and helping out your team as an extremely cheap pick. I think the move up to bantamweight will actually prove to be a smart decision for the Olympic gold medalist. Dustin Kimura is a serious threat for a submission at any point throughout the fight but if Cejudo can prevent the sub I think he takes this fight pretty decisively. He’s a relatively safe bet to get you points for a number of takedowns and dominant positions if Kimura is able to repeatedly get up after being taken down. Kimura has shown to be a durable fighter so I think this fight makes the scorecards more often than not, but at $4,000 even a grinding decision win on Cejudo’s part will help your KM team, leaving room for some pricier finishers on your team to do the rest of the work.

3.   The fighter to stay away from for the UFC on Fox 13 event this Saturday is definitely going to be Joe Ellenberger ($5,400). Do I think he wins? Yes, but I don’t see it being a dominant win by any means. After switching opponents a number of times, Ellenberger won his UFC debut back in June with a split decision over James Moonstari, who had almost knocked him out in the opening round. Ellenberger’s current opponent, Bryan Barberena is on the good side of a four-inch height advantage, and has made a name for himself as a crowd-pleasing finisher having finished eight of his nine wins. I think Barberena gives Ellenberger a few scary moments early in the fight until “Excalibur” falls back on his wrestling advantage to grind out a victory. Not exactly the type of fighter I want for a $5,500 price tag.

Getting in to the freeroll is as easy as following the link below. Don’t have an account? No worries, it only takes an email and about 30 seconds of your time. Hurry though, there are only 150 spots and these games tend to fill up fast!

Fightbooth’s UFC on FOX 13 Kountermove Freeroll

Good luck this weekend!

Questions? Suggestions? Give me a shout on twitter @BlackEyeBowtie