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UFC Fight Night 51 & Bellator 124 Kountermove Preview

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We’ve got another weekend of fights for you coming up and with that is another Kountermove preview.  We’ve got a Kountermove breakdown for each card, and because of the double-header this weekend we’ll be doing three shorter tips for each event again, rather than the usual five. Before we get too far, here`s a little reminder from the founders of the site on how KM works and how fights are scored:

“About Kountermove.  Kountermove, Inc. is currently the world’s leading Fantasy MMA community. Kountermove is like fantasy football or baseball, but for MMA. Our founders, Aaron Ard and Brian Knapp, are Jiu-jitsu black belts and IBJJF competitors.

Pick your team of 5 fighters. You are given a “salary cap” of $25,000 in fantasy money to spend on drafting your team of fighters you expect to perform well/win.

Each fighter is assigned a price that is reflective of his or her respective odds. For example, in UFC 167: GSP cost $6,000, while Johny Hendricks cost $5,000. Since Hendricks is the underdog, he cost less than GSP.

Score Points and Win. Once the fight card begins, you accumulate points based on how well your picks performed.

Winners are determined by the most points earned – points are awarded: strikes landed, submission attempts, knockdowns, dominant positions, rounds won, and knockout or submission bonuses.

Fight statistics are provided by FightMetric LLC, the UFC’s official stats provider.”

Here are a few extra links to get you accustomed to how the site works and how performances are scored.

How it works

Scoring

Remember this is fantasy sports, so you’re not only trying to pick a winner but someone you think will finish the fight or rack up a ton of points on their way to a decision.

Here are 3 tips for each event that will hopefully help you make some cash on Saturday:

Bellator 124


1.   Um hey guys don’t look now but Emanuel Newton is actually only $4,500. We’re getting a little gift from KM here, because Newton is the overwhelming favorite going into his Light Heavyweight title defense against Joey Beltran. Newton isn’t exactly known for his finishing prowess, but I’m confident he will at worst win 4 or probably all 5 rounds getting you 50 points from the decision win alone. I think he’ll end up finishing Beltran late in the fight, but whether he finishes the fight late or takes a decision he’s a pretty solid lock for the dominant W – something you look for when only paying $4,500. He lets you spend a little more on some other picks too, which is always helpful.

2.   A pricier pick who I like to get you a decent amount of points is Liam McGeary ($5,300). There really isn’t much explaining to do here on the potential upside KM-wise for McGreary. 100% finish rate. 6/8 finishes in the first round. Massive size advantage over Anundson. It isn’t impossible Anundson gets him up against the cage and grinds for some of the fight but I can’t see it lasting for the entire fight. I see Anundson getting clipped, dropped, and finished in the first two rounds of the fight (likely the first, since McGeary doesn’t exactly waste while time looking for the finish).

3.   A more expensive fighter I’d stay away from this weekend is LC Davis ($5,400). I can see this fight end up coming down to a close decision, which is never something I want from a fighter who costs $5,400. Davis is the most expensive fighter on the card despite being the smallest favourite on the main card. I think the fight is going to be grappling-heavy, which isn’t usually great from a KM perspective. Pair that with the possibility of Davis’ opponent Zeilton Rodrigues catching him in a submission after getting taken down and you’ve got two big reasons to stay away from LC this weekend.

UFC Fight Night 51


1.   Just like most normal KM cards, there are a few expensive picks here that need to be balanced out with cheaper fighters who might surprise everyone. Larissa Pacheco ($4,100) is that fighter for me this weekend. She’s not as technical as Andrade, but she’s extremely aggressive which has led her to finish all of her 10 pro fights, six in the first round of action. Her price allows you to spend big on a few other spots on your team, and if she comes through with the finish she’ll likely be the key to putting you in the money, depending on how your pricier picks perform. Even if the fight goes to decision she’s an exciting fighter who is always looking to end the fight – something that should translate well for your KM team.

2.   Godofredo Pepey ($5,000) is another pick who I think will get the finish this weekend. Don’t be fooled by Dashon Johnson’s 9-1 record (8 finishes), because before Jake Matthews he’d been predominantly fighting tomato cans who are currently a combined 13-44. He looked completely lost while getting manhandled by Matthews, and I think the same thing will happen in this fight. It won’t necessarily be as beautiful as Pepey’s flying knee KO of Noad Lahat during his last trip to the octagon, but I can still easily see him landing some hard shots, dropping Johnson, and following him to the ground to either finish him off with strikes or sink in a submission. Regardless of how the Brazilian decides to finish him off, he gets you a good number of KM points, which is exactly what you’re looking for in an average priced fighter.

3.   A fighter on the Fight Night 51 card who I’m going to I’m going to be avoiding is the expensive Brazilian Igor Araujo ($5,400). This one, like the decision to avoid LC Davis on the Bellator card, comes down to how I think the fight will end. I see this fight with George Sullivan being a closer decision, with the possibility of Sullivan keeping the fight on the feet and hurting Araujo on his way to a decision win, if not finishing him at some point during the bout. Not the type of thought I want to be having about someone who costs so much. For the price you’d be spending on Araujo I think that there are a number of other options who are more likely to score you more KM points.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions? Suggestions? Give me a shout on twitter @BlackEyeBowtie

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