The UFC is making it’s debut in Poland this weekend with Fight Night 64 headlined by a rematch between Gabriel Gonzaga and Mirko Cro Cop. There’s been some complaints about this being a weak card but I think it has the potential to be a fun card despite the majority of the card lacking big names. To get you ready for the fights on Saturday, we’ve got your regular Kountermove breakdown including two picks I like and a fighter I’m staying away from. Before that here’s a reminder from the founders of the site on how KM works and how fights are scored for anyone who’s new to the game:
“About Kountermove. Kountermove, Inc. is currently the world’s leading Fantasy MMA community. Kountermove is like fantasy football or baseball, but for MMA. Our founders, Aaron Ard and Brian Knapp, are Jiu-jitsu black belts and IBJJF competitors.
Pick your team of 5 fighters. You are given a “salary cap” of $25,000 in fantasy money to spend on drafting your team of fighters you expect to perform well/win.
Each fighter is assigned a price that is reflective of his or her respective odds. For example, in UFC 167: GSP cost $6,000, while Johny Hendricks cost $5,000. Since Hendricks is the underdog, he cost less than GSP.
Score Points and Win. Once the fight card begins, you accumulate points based on how well your picks performed.
Winners are determined by the most points earned – points are awarded: strikes landed, submission attempts, knockdowns, dominant positions, rounds won, and knockout or submission bonuses.
Fight statistics are provided by FightMetric LLC, the UFC’s official stats provider.”
Here are a few extra links to get you accustomed to how the site works and how performances are scored.
Remember this is fantasy sports, so you’re not only trying to pick a winner but someone you think will finish the fight or rack up a ton of points on their way to a decision. Don’t have a Kountermove account? All it takes is about 30 seconds and an email address so don’t panic, you’ve still got time before the fights start.
Here are three quick tips for the event that will hopefully help you make some cash on Saturday:
1. There are a few really good picks on this card if you know where to look but my top pick for the UFC’s first trip to Poland is Sergio Moraes ($5,400). Although he’s coming off of a 20 month layoff due to injuries he’s going to have a considerable experience and grappling advantage coming in to this bout with late-notice replacement Mickael Lebout. The fight will start out as a close striking match on the feet with Lebout likely having the striking advantage but it’s only a matter of time before the fight lands on the ground where Moraes will likely be able to take over and finish the fight. Moraes’ grappling ability and likely an early submission will get you a good number of KM points heading in to the event’s main card.
2. If you’re looking to spend your budget on a few more expensive fighters on the card, you’re going to want a cheap pick to balance out your team. My cheap pick of the night this weekend is Bartosz Fabinski ($4,100). This is a fight where I see a finish happening with both guys having a propensity for ending the fight before the bell. In a close fight where a finish could occur for either fighter I’d almost always suggest going for the cheaper price tag but even more in this case. I think Fabinski holds a number of advantages and should be the favorite in this fight. Fabinski has fought a higher level of competition that McLellan has, who hasn’t fought outside of South Africa throughout his 14 fight career, and should be able to use his wrestling either in reverse to keep the fight standing or to set up some strikes from top position. Either way I see him avoiding the submission long enough to either strike his way to a finish or to winning a decision. Either way he’s a great pick for being one of the two fighters on this card priced at $4,100.
3. A fighter I’m going to be staying away from despite him being the favorite and bigger name is Jimi Manuwa ($5,500). Yes he’s a dangerous fighter who has finished all of his 14 wins but it’s worth noting that he hasn’t had a clean finish in about three and a half years. His last four wins have come from either fighter retirement between rounds, injury, or doctor stoppage. I’m not at all trying to belittle those wins because it was in fact Manuwa who caused the damage leading to each of those finishes but I think Blachowicz is too durable of a fighter at this point in his career to succumb to the same fate. If you’re going to pick this fight at all I’d suggest taking a risk on the Polish Jan Blachowicz ($4,100) because of his low price tag and chance of finishing the fight. You’d be taking a pretty big risk on Blachowicz but the main takeaway from this article should be to keep your distance from Manuwa.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions? Suggestions? Give me a shout on twitter @BlackEyeBowtie
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