UFC Fight Night 68 Kountermove Preview

The UFC returns to New Orleans this weekend for the first time since Fight Night 25: Shields/Ellenberger with Fight Night 68 headlined by Dan Henderson and Tim Boetsch. DC/Bader was the original headliner which would have been a suitable main event but DC was pulled to fight and defeat Rumble Johnson for the title, leading to the UFC promoting Hendo/Boetsch to the main event slot. The card isn’t huge on excitement, but does have some intriguing fights with Dustin Poirier attempting to continue to make a name for himself at lightweight against Yancy Medeiros and Francisco Rivera trying to get back in to the win column against Alex ‘Bruce Leeroy’ Caceres. the UFC has also scheduled a pair of heavyweight bouts with Matt Mitrione taking on Ben Rothwell and Shawn Jordan meeting Derrick Lewis. To get you ready for the fights on Saturday, we’ve got your regular Kountermove breakdown including two picks I like and a fighter I’m staying away from. Before we get down to business, here’s a reminder from the founders of the site on how KM works and how fights are scored for anyone who’s new to the game:

“About Kountermove.  Kountermove, Inc. is currently the world’s leading Fantasy MMA community. Kountermove is like fantasy football or baseball, but for MMA. Our founders, Aaron Ard and Brian Knapp, are Jiu-jitsu black belts and IBJJF competitors.

Pick your team of 5 fighters. You are given a “salary cap” of $25,000 in fantasy money to spend on drafting your team of fighters you expect to perform well/win.

Each fighter is assigned a price that is reflective of his or her respective odds. For example, in UFC 167: GSP cost $6,000, while Johny Hendricks cost $5,000. Since Hendricks is the underdog, he cost less than GSP.

Score Points and Win. Once the fight card begins, you accumulate points based on how well your picks performed.

Winners are determined by the most points earned – points are awarded: strikes landed, submission attempts, knockdowns, dominant positions, rounds won, and knockout or submission bonuses.

Fight statistics are provided by FightMetric LLC, the UFC’s official stats provider.”

Here are a few extra links to get you accustomed to how the site works and how performances are scored.

How it works

Scoring

Remember this is fantasy sports, so you’re not only trying to pick a winner but someone you think will finish the fight or rack up a ton of points on their way to a decision. Don’t have a Kountermove account? All it takes is about 30 seconds and an email address so don’t panic, you’ve still got time before the fights start.

Here are three quick tips for the event that will hopefully help you make some cash on Saturday:

1.   My top pick for the event on Saturday is Francisco Rivera ($4,800). He’s got an exciting matchup with Alex Caceres and I think we’re in for a fun fight but one that ‘Cisco’ wins convincingly. I like him to beat Caceres up on the way to a dominant decision or more likely an early stoppage. Caceres has the grappling skills to make this fight competitive if he can get Rivera to the mat but I don’t see that happening with Rivera preventing the takedown long enough to do some serious damage on the feet. I think Rivera is going to unleash some pent-up frustration from the Faber eye-poke-to-bulldog-choke finish on an unsuspecting Caceres who has the unfortunate fate of being stuck in the crosshairs. I think he lands early and often and sends ‘Bruce Leeroy’ to the mat within the first two rounds before following him down and finishing the fight. Rivera’s relatively low price tag along with his punching power and finishing ability to end this fight early and score you a nice amount of KM points to open up the main card.

2.   The cheap pick of the week is Derrick Lewis ($4,600) in his heavyweight slugfest with Shawn Jordan. There really isn’t much to be said about what’s expected of this fight; we’re in for some good old fashioned lumbering fisticuffs. I think these guys are going to spend the first round headhunting with Jordan looking to clinch occasionally with Lewis looking to strike from range. Both fighters will likely land early but Lewis has the significantly better chin of the two, having only been knocked out by a vicious shot from Matt Mitrione in his last outing, and will outlast the former football player to find a finish of his own early in the fight. For $4,600 Derrick Lewis is an absolute steal if he gets the finish early in the fight, leaving room elsewhere on your team for more expensive fighters.

3.   The fighter I’d advise staying away from for this weekend’s fights is the second most expensive pick Chris Wade ($5,300). He’s won six of his nine wins by decision and if his performance this weekend is anything like it was in his last outing against Lipeng Zhang (A slow, grinding decision) then he is not the type of fighter you want to think about rolling the dice on. He’s also facing Christos Giagos who is a dangerous opponent having finished nine of his 11 wins, including his last seven victories. This is the type of situation where regardless of how likely Wade is to win he’ll likely do it with a grinding decision or get caught and finished in the process. This is literally the last fighter description you ever want when picking your KM team.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions? Suggestions? Give me a shout on twitter @BlackEyeBowtie