UFC Fight Night 70 Kountermove Preview

The UFC is back again this weekend with Fight Night 70 in Hollywood, Florida. The card was originally going to take place in Sao Paulo, Brazil but changed location about six weeks before the event. The change in location forced a number of fighters off the card with visa issues. Because of the change in location, the card is now headlined by former light heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida taking on Olympian Yoel Romero in a middleweight bout with direct title implications. To get you ready for the fights on Saturday, we’ve got your regular Kountermove breakdown including two picks I like and a fight I’m staying away from. Before we get down to business, here’s a reminder from the founders of the site on how KM works and how fights are scored for anyone who’s new to the game:

“About Kountermove.  Kountermove, Inc. is currently the world’s leading Fantasy MMA community. Kountermove is like fantasy football or baseball, but for MMA. Our founders, Aaron Ard and Brian Knapp, are Jiu-jitsu black belts and IBJJF competitors.

Pick your team of 5 fighters. You are given a “salary cap” of $25,000 in fantasy money to spend on drafting your team of fighters you expect to perform well/win.

Each fighter is assigned a price that is reflective of his or her respective odds. For example, in UFC 167: GSP cost $6,000, while Johny Hendricks cost $5,000. Since Hendricks is the underdog, he cost less than GSP.

Score Points and Win. Once the fight card begins, you accumulate points based on how well your picks performed.

Winners are determined by the most points earned – points are awarded: strikes landed, submission attempts, knockdowns, dominant positions, rounds won, and knockout or submission bonuses.

Fight statistics are provided by FightMetric LLC, the UFC’s official stats provider.”

Here are a few extra links to get you accustomed to how the site works and how performances are scored.

How it works

Scoring

Remember this is fantasy sports, so you’re not only trying to pick a winner but someone you think will finish the fight or rack up a ton of points on their way to a decision. Don’t have a Kountermove account? All it takes is about 30 seconds and an email address so don’t panic, you’ve still got time before the fights start.

Here are three quick tips for the event that will hopefully help you make some cash on Saturday:

1.   There aren’t a lot of solid picks for finishes this weekend but Alex Oliveira ($5,400) is a definite lock for my top pick of the weekend. This is his fourth fight in as many months which would normally be a cause for apprehension but he’s been fighting and impressing at a much stage than his opponent Joe Merritt and should roll through him in this fight. Merritt’s competition leading in to his most recent fight in RFA are currently 7-27 and he hasn’t fought anyone near the level of Oliveira and I think it will show quickly in this fight. I think this fight will play out on the feet where ‘Cowboy’ will bomb Merritt before knocking him out on the feet or dropping him to follow up with a submission. I think that Oliveira has the best chance for a first round finish and should be a staple on your KM team this weekend.

2.   One of the cheaper picks on this card that should make a good add to your KM team is Lorenz Larkin ($4,600). He looked great in his welterweight debut in January by finishing John Howard in the first round and I expect him to impress here again in this fight. I think this is another fight that will play out entirely on the feet with Larkin winning a majority of the striking exchanges. I think ‘The Monsoon’ will use his diverse striking to land early and often in this fight on his way to a finish or to a one-sided decision. Either way for $4,600 Larkin makes a great cheap addition to your KM team.

3.   An entire fight that I’m going to be staying away from on this card is the bantamweight bout opening the card between Danny Martinez ($4,800) and Sirwan Kakai ($4,800). There are a number of weird circumstances surrounding this fight which makes the outcome harder to predict. Martinez has gone 0-2 in the UFC but has faced some tough opposition while Kakai has impressed outside of the UFC but at a much lower level. This fight was announced just last week, so there isn’t any indication of how either of these guys will perform when they show up on Saturday night. Martinez is making his bantamweight debut hereafter moving up from flyweight while his opponent ‘Zohan’ normally fights at featherweight. I’m leaning towards the Swedish Kakai to pick up a win here in his UFC debut but because of the conditions of this fight I’m going to stay away from the fight from a betting/KM perspective. There are only nine bouts on this card but there are still better options elsewhere on the card for your team.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions? Suggestions? Give me a shout on twitter @BlackEyeBowtie