UFC on Fox 15 Kountermove Preview

The UFC makes a return to Fox this weekend with UFC on Fox 15 in New Jersey. The card is headlined by one of the fight I’ve been looking forward to the most since it’s announcement with Luke Rockhold taking on Lyoto Machida. The card is filled with some great other fights too, despite losing Yoel Romero last minute. To get you ready for the fights on Saturday, we’ve got your regular Kountermove breakdown including two picks I like and a fighter I’m staying away from. Before that here’s a reminder from the founders of the site on how KM works and how fights are scored for anyone who’s new to the game:

“About Kountermove.  Kountermove, Inc. is currently the world’s leading Fantasy MMA community. Kountermove is like fantasy football or baseball, but for MMA. Our founders, Aaron Ard and Brian Knapp, are Jiu-jitsu black belts and IBJJF competitors.

Pick your team of 5 fighters. You are given a “salary cap” of $25,000 in fantasy money to spend on drafting your team of fighters you expect to perform well/win.

Each fighter is assigned a price that is reflective of his or her respective odds. For example, in UFC 167: GSP cost $6,000, while Johny Hendricks cost $5,000. Since Hendricks is the underdog, he cost less than GSP.

Score Points and Win. Once the fight card begins, you accumulate points based on how well your picks performed.

Winners are determined by the most points earned – points are awarded: strikes landed, submission attempts, knockdowns, dominant positions, rounds won, and knockout or submission bonuses.

Fight statistics are provided by FightMetric LLC, the UFC’s official stats provider.”

Here are a few extra links to get you accustomed to how the site works and how performances are scored.

How it works

Scoring

Remember this is fantasy sports, so you’re not only trying to pick a winner but someone you think will finish the fight or rack up a ton of points on their way to a decision. Don’t have a Kountermove account? All it takes is about 30 seconds and an email address so don’t panic, you’ve still got time before the fights start.

Here are three quick tips for the event that will hopefully help you make some cash on Saturday:

1.   Top pick is a pretty obvious one for this card, I’d think. Props to Chris Camozzi for stepping up on late notice in a spot where not a lot of other fighters wanted to be but Ronaldo Souza ($5,400) should cruise here. Their first fight almost two years ago ended in a first round submission for Jacare and I don’t see this fight going too much differently. Camozzi followed the defeat with three straight losses to worse opponents than Souza and subsequently get release from the UFC while Jacare went on to beat three fighters who are arguably better than Camozzi. I think he is going to try to make the best out of the lose-lose step down in opposition and secure a quick finish. Souza will likely show up on a number of teams and for good measure. It’s likely only a matter of time before he gets the fight to the ground and latches on some kind of submission, getting you (hopefully) 100+ points.

2.   As a cheap pick to round out some of the more expensive options this week I’d look at taking a chance on Paige Van Zant ($4,600). While she’s got significantly less experience than he opponent and TUF alum Felice Herrig I think she’s the type of fighter who we will see making large jumps in skill level between fights. Herrig will also likely have a slight wrestling advantage coming in to this fight but I think Van Zant will be able to keep the fight standing and force striking exchanges. From there I think she’ll be the faster fighter be able to beat Herrig to the punch more often than not. With her aggressive output and great cardio she should rack up a nice number of points from landing significant strikes on top of any rounds won.

3.   As far as a fighter I’d advise against this weekend it’s going to have to be Ovince Saint Preux ($5,100). I see this fight going pretty similar to how OSP’s last fight with Ryan Bader ended up going, with him trying to land some creative strikes but getting outmatched by a fight who isn’t flashy, but is a more fundamentally complete fighter. I think he Cummins is going to spend a majority of the fight putting OSP on his back, not unlike Bader did, and landing shots from top position on his way to a decision. Even if the fight does stay standing I think it will be relatively competitive fight. For the $5,100 he eats out of your budget I think there are much better options found elsewhere on the card.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions? Suggestions? Give me a shout on twitter @BlackEyeBowtie