UFC on Fox 16 Kountermove Preview

The UFC returns to Fox this weekend with UFC on Fox 16 headlined between the Bantamweight title rematch between the new champ TJ Dillashaw and the former belt holder Renan Barao. As per the norm with the UFC’s events on Fox, the card is packed with a number of other fun fights from top to bottom and should produce some crazy results when it’s all said and done. To get you ready for the fights on Saturday, we’ve got your regular Kountermove breakdown including two picks I like and a fighter I’m staying away from. Before we get down to business, here’s a reminder from the founders of the site on how KM works and how fights are scored for anyone who’s new to the game:

“About Kountermove.  Kountermove, Inc. is currently the world’s leading Fantasy MMA community. Kountermove is like fantasy football or baseball, but for MMA. Our founders, Aaron Ard and Brian Knapp, are Jiu-jitsu black belts and IBJJF competitors.

Pick your team of 5 fighters. You are given a “salary cap” of $25,000 in fantasy money to spend on drafting your team of fighters you expect to perform well/win.

Each fighter is assigned a price that is reflective of his or her respective odds. For example, in UFC 167: GSP cost $6,000, while Johny Hendricks cost $5,000. Since Hendricks is the underdog, he cost less than GSP.

Score Points and Win. Once the fight card begins, you accumulate points based on how well your picks performed.

Winners are determined by the most points earned – points are awarded: strikes landed, submission attempts, knockdowns, dominant positions, rounds won, and knockout or submission bonuses.

Fight statistics are provided by FightMetric LLC, the UFC’s official stats provider.”

Here are a few extra links to get you accustomed to how the site works and how performances are scored.

How it works

Scoring

Remember this is fantasy sports, so you’re not only trying to pick a winner but someone you think will finish the fight or rack up a ton of points on their way to a decision. Don’t have a Kountermove account? All it takes is about 30 seconds and an email address so don’t panic, you’ve still got time before the fights start.

Here are three quick tips for the event that will hopefully help you make some cash on Saturday:

1.   This weekend’s top KM pick is none other than the Bantamweight Champ TJ Dillashaw ($5,400). I think this fight ends up playing out similar to his first meeting with Barao with him threatening with takedowns and beating the former champ to the punch early in the fight and eventually getting a stoppage at some point in the last three rounds. I’m not naïve enough to think that Barao will show up with the exact same gameplan as the previous fight, but I still don’t think it will be enough to change the outcome. Dillashaw’s output alone should give you a better score than half the fighters on the card will rack up in total, and along with rounds won or a potential finish Dillashaw will likely end up being one of the higher scoring fighters come Saturday night.

2.   A chaep pick that I’m all over this weekend is Paul Felder ($4,600). He’s drawn Edson Barboza in the second fight on UFC on Fox 16’s main card in what should be a striking battle and fight of the night contender. Barboza is an offensive nightmare but has some holes in his game when he’s forced to be on the defensive. Felder on the other hand has proven that he’s effective both as an aggressor and as a counterpuncher, and I think that will be the key in this fight. As much as Felder’s spinning backfist KO of Danny Castillo was the performance that got everyone noticing ‘The Irish Dragon’, I think it’s going to be a finish of Barboza here that proves Felder’s legitimacy. Coming in at $400 he’s a steal for the low price tag and should have a spot on your team this weekend.

3.   An expensive fighter I’m not even considering as a KM play this weekend is Miesha Tate ($5,400). I think this fight is much closer to a coin flip than the KM prices suggest and think that it goes to decision more often than not. It’s going to come down to Eye’s ability to keep the fight standing compared to Tate’s effectiveness both in getting the takedown and keeping the fight on the mat. For $5,400 you want a fighter who will finish the fight or win a beatdown and I don’t see either outcome happening Saturday night.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions? Suggestions? Give me a shout on twitter @BlackEyeBowtie